The electricity consumption of US data centers is increasing at an accelerating rate, according to a groundbreaking report by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). Commissioned by the Department of Energy (DOE), the study reveals that data centers consumed 4.4% of the nation’s power in 2023, with projections estimating a surge to 6.7% to 12% by 2028.
This growth follows a period of relative stability, where efficiency improvements and the transition to cloud computing helped maintain steady power usage. However, the rapid adoption of AI and advanced computing technologies has shifted the trajectory sharply upwards.
Historical Trends in Data Center Energy Use
A Decade of Change: From 2007 to 2023
The LBNL’s latest report builds on previous studies from 2007 and 2016. Between 2014 and 2016, data center energy consumption hovered around 60 terawatt-hours (TWh), representing 1.5% of US electricity use. By 2018, consumption had risen to 76 TWh (1.9%), driven by the initial deployment of AI servers.
Recent Accelerated Growth
Between 2018 and 2023, energy usage surged to 176 TWh, accounting for 4.4% of the nation’s power. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18%, up from 7% during the 2014-2018 period. This dramatic increase underscores the growing demand for AI and machine learning capabilities in modern data centers.
Future Projections: A Growing Energy Footprint
2028 Scenarios: Low-End and High-End Estimates
Looking ahead, the report outlines scenarios for 2028 based on factors such as construction data, GPU shipments, and cooling technologies:
- Low-End Projection: 325 TWh, or 6.7% of US electricity consumption.
- High-End Projection: 580 TWh, or 12% of US electricity consumption.
This anticipated growth reflects the continuing rise of AI workloads, the proliferation of hyperscale data centers, and advances in accelerated computing technologies.
Impact of AI on Energy Demand
AI servers have significantly altered energy demand in the sector. The report highlights that “the rapid growth in accelerated servers has caused current total data center energy demand to more than double between 2017 and 2023.” Continued adoption of AI services is expected to drive further substantial increases.
Challenges and Uncertainties
Limited Transparency and Data Availability
The LBNL report notes that its findings rely on estimates due to the lack of detailed, publicly available data. For instance, its 2016 report underestimated the impact of AI, leading to lower projections for 2018 energy usage.
Broader Energy Demands
The report places data center energy consumption in the context of other emerging demands, including:
- Electric Vehicles (EVs): Increased adoption of EVs.
- Onshoring Manufacturing: Energy-intensive industries relocating operations to the US.
- Hydrogen and Electrification: Expanded use of hydrogen and electrification across sectors.
These factors highlight the need for a comprehensive approach to electricity infrastructure expansion.
Water Usage: Another Growing Concern
Water usage by data centers has also increased significantly. In 2014, data centers consumed 21.2 billion liters of water. By 2023, this figure had tripled to 66 billion liters, with hyperscale facilities accounting for 84% of the total. Projections for 2028 estimate hyperscale water consumption will range from 60 to 124 billion liters.
Recommendations for the Future
Research and Innovation
To address these challenges, the LBNL report emphasizes the need for:
- Energy Efficiency Strategies: Identifying methods to optimize data center operations.
- Infrastructure Expansion: Developing scalable electricity systems.
- Leadership in Innovation: Positioning the US as a global leader in sustainable energy solutions for data centers.
Planning for Extreme Scenarios
The report cautions against dismissing projections of extreme energy usage. Policymakers and industry stakeholders must prepare for scenarios that could place significant stress on the electrical grid.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Q1: Why is data center energy consumption increasing so rapidly?
A1: The surge is primarily due to the widespread adoption of AI and machine learning, which require high-performance servers and advanced cooling technologies.
Q2: What percentage of US electricity do data centers currently consume?
A2: As of 2023, data centers account for 4.4% of total US electricity consumption.
Q3: How much water do hyperscale data centers use?
A3: Hyperscale facilities consumed 84% of the 66 billion liters of water used by data centers in 2023, with projections estimating up to 124 billion liters by 2028.
Q4: What steps can be taken to reduce data center energy usage?
A4: Improving cooling efficiency, transitioning to renewable energy sources, and deploying energy-efficient hardware are key strategies.
Q5: How does data center energy use compare to other industries?
A5: While data centers represent a smaller share of energy consumption compared to manufacturing or transportation, their rapid growth rate makes them a critical focus area.
