Iraq’s energy infrastructure is increasingly threatened by climate change, with rising temperatures and extreme weather patterns exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. From soaring heatwaves to intense dust storms, the country’s energy system faces immense challenges that require urgent policy interventions and long-term planning. This article explores the specific risks and solutions for Iraq’s energy sector in the face of climate change, offering actionable insights for decision-makers.
Rising Temperatures and Their Impact on Iraq’s Energy Demand
From 2000 to 2023, Iraq experienced an average temperature increase of 0.48°C per decade, surpassing the global average of 0.37°C. This upward trend is set to continue, with temperatures projected to rise by 2.5°C in a low-emissions scenario and 5.6°C in a high-emissions scenario by 2100, compared to pre-industrial levels.
These rising temperatures, along with an increasing frequency of heatwaves, will drive up the demand for cooling solutions like air conditioning and refrigeration. As demand spikes, the pressure on Iraq’s already strained electricity grid will intensify, making reliable energy delivery increasingly difficult.
Key Data and Projections: Table Format
Data Point | Description | Projections/Statistics | Impact/Significance |
---|---|---|---|
Warming Rate in Iraq vs Global Average | Comparison of Iraq’s warming rate to the global average | Iraq: 0.48°C per decade; Global: 0.37°C per decade | Iraq’s warming rate is 30% higher than the global average, signaling rapid climate change. |
Temperature Rise by 2100 | Projected temperature increase in Iraq under different emissions scenarios | Low-emissions: +2.5°C; High-emissions: +5.6°C | Significant rise in temperatures will strain Iraq’s energy infrastructure and increase cooling demand. |
Electricity Grid Transmission Losses | Transmission inefficiencies in Iraq’s power grid | Transmission Loss: 50-60% | High losses indicate inefficiencies, exacerbating challenges for the power grid. |
Solar PV Output Reduction from Dust Storms | Impact of sand and dust storms on solar power generation | Reduction in Output: Up to 60% | Sand and dust storms could significantly reduce solar energy production, hindering renewable energy goals. |
Precipitation Changes by Region | Projected changes in precipitation across Iraq | North: Decline; South: Increase | Changes in precipitation patterns increase the risk of droughts in the north and floods in the south. |
Projected One-Day Maximum Precipitation Change by 2100 | Forecasted changes in one-day maximum precipitation in Iraq | Low-emissions: +10%; High-emissions: +24% | Increased precipitation will pose significant risks to infrastructure, including the energy sector. |
Challenges Faced by Iraq’s Electricity Grid
Iraq’s electricity system is plagued by several systemic issues. Transmission losses remain alarmingly high, ranging from 50% to 60%, one of the highest rates globally. These losses are compounded by a significant gap between the country’s nameplate generation capacity and the actual output, a legacy of decades of conflict and war. With rising temperatures and the growing demand for cooling, the grid’s reliability will face more frequent disruptions.
Gas-fired power plants, which are vital to Iraq’s energy supply, are also experiencing reduced output, further increasing the strain on the grid. These challenges highlight the urgent need for a comprehensive strategy to improve grid efficiency and capacity.

The Role of Water Scarcity in Iraq’s Energy Sector
Iraq’s energy sector is deeply intertwined with its water resources. The country faces significant regional variations in precipitation, with projected declines in the north and increases in the south. These shifts are expected to heighten the risk of droughts, which could severely impact water availability for energy production, especially in oil and gas extraction operations that rely heavily on water.
Furthermore, Iraq is among the countries most exposed to river floods, a paradox that presents additional risks to its energy infrastructure. Extreme weather, such as intense rainfall following prolonged droughts, can lead to flash floods and river overflows, threatening critical facilities like power plants and refineries.

Sand and Dust Storms: A Growing Threat to Solar Energy
Over the past two decades, sand and dust storms have become more frequent and intense in Iraq. These storms pose a significant threat to solar energy generation, reducing solar photovoltaic (PV) output by more than 60%. Given Iraq’s ambition to install 12 GW of solar PV capacity by 2030, this environmental challenge could derail progress toward meeting renewable energy targets.
In addition to impeding solar power production, these storms also disrupt transportation routes, affecting Iraq’s critical export operations. This double threat underscores the importance of diversifying energy sources and improving infrastructure resilience.
Strengthening Iraq’s Energy Sector Against Climate Risks
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has highlighted the severe risks posed by rising temperatures, heatwaves, droughts, and water scarcity to Iraq’s energy sector. To build a climate-resilient energy system, the country must adopt a multi-faceted approach that addresses both physical and cyber threats.
Key Interventions for Climate Resilience
- Distributed Power Generation and Microgrids: Prioritizing decentralized energy solutions like microgrids can provide a buffer against widespread disruptions, ensuring continued power supply even during grid failures.
- Diversification of Energy Sources: Expanding the energy mix beyond gas-fired plants and solar PV will reduce vulnerability to climate impacts. Wind energy and hydropower should be explored as potential alternatives.
- Grid Interconnection and Upgrades: Strengthening Iraq’s electricity grid and improving its interconnection with neighboring countries will enhance system stability and reliability, especially during extreme weather events.
- Enhanced Disaster Risk Management: Developing robust disaster response strategies and investing in climate-resilient infrastructure are essential steps in mitigating the effects of climate change on Iraq’s energy sector.
Iraq’s Efforts Toward Climate Adaptation
Iraq has acknowledged the urgency of incorporating climate change considerations into its energy policy. The country submitted its first Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2021 and began developing a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) in 2020. These efforts are critical for aligning Iraq’s energy sector with global climate goals and building resilience against future climate challenges.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1: How is climate change impacting Iraq’s energy grid?
A1: Rising temperatures, heatwaves, and water scarcity are straining Iraq’s electricity grid, leading to increased demand for cooling and reduced power generation, especially from gas-fired plants.
Q2: What role do sand and dust storms play in Iraq’s energy challenges?
A2: Sand and dust storms significantly reduce the efficiency of solar PV systems and disrupt transportation routes, threatening both energy production and critical exports.
Q3: What steps is Iraq taking to adapt its energy infrastructure?
A3: Iraq is focusing on distributed power generation, enhancing grid interconnections, and investing in climate-resilient infrastructure to address the growing risks posed by climate change.
Q4: What are the risks associated with Iraq’s water scarcity for energy production?
A4: Water scarcity poses a significant risk to Iraq’s energy production, particularly in oil and gas extraction, which depends on water for operations. Droughts and changing precipitation patterns further exacerbate these risks.
Q5: How can microgrids help Iraq’s energy sector?
A5: Microgrids offer a decentralized energy solution that can operate independently of the main grid, providing reliable power during disruptions caused by extreme weather or other challenges.